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Sidus Space Inc. (SIDU)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 revenue was $0.24M, down 77% year-over-year and down sequentially, driven by timing of fixed-price milestones and an intentional pivot away from legacy contract work; net loss widened to $6.41M on higher depreciation and scaling costs .
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss increased to $4.67M versus $2.68M in Q1 2024 as investments in satellites, ERP, and AI platforms flowed through; cash ended at $11.7M with the Decathlon loan fully repaid, strengthening balance sheet flexibility .
  • Operationally, Sidus launched LizzieSat-3 (LS-3) on March 14 and validated FeatherEdge GEN-2 on-orbit; Orlaith AI and SOSA/OpenVPX ruggedized products were introduced, with early defense/commercial engagements and Asia deployment commencing .
  • No formal numeric guidance was provided; management expects “material revenue growth” in 2H 2025 and initial VPX/SOSA product orders beginning in Q2 as commercialization ramps, which are potential stock catalysts alongside lunar program progress under the amended ~$120M Lonestar agreement .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Q1 was a pivotal quarter…we launched LizzieSat-3 and advanced a major technology rollout…we are poised to generate revenue from diversified initiatives in the second half of the year,” said CEO Carol Craig, highlighting foundation for future growth and strengthened balance sheet .
  • FeatherEdge GEN-2 achieved successful on-orbit operation and commercial availability at 100 TOPS, opening hardware sales and data processing service opportunities across defense, maritime, aviation, and terrestrial markets .
  • Expansion of ruggedized, SOSA/OpenVPX-aligned computing (Fortis VPX; SSBC; PNT module) and Orlaith AI ecosystem broadened dual-use applicability; Asia deployment and partnerships (Reflex Aerospace, Little Place Labs) deepen routes to commercialization .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue fell to $0.24M vs $1.05M YoY as Sidus transitioned away from legacy services; cost of revenue rose 93% to $1.87M on higher satellite/software depreciation and material/labor costs, compressing gross margin to a loss of $1.63M .
  • SG&A increased to $4.44M (from $3.65M YoY) due to headcount, launch rescheduling, mission ops for multiple satellites, severance, and debt payoff-related expenses; adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $4.67M .
  • No formal numerical guidance, and revenue recognition on the ~$120M Lonestar lunar program has not begun; near-term financials reflect scaling and depreciation headwinds prior to higher-margin satellite/data services ramp .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD)$1,868,958 $825,963*$238,494
Gross Profit (Loss) ($USD)$38,171 —$(1,628,478)
Net Loss ($USD)$(3,902,589) —$(6,414,627)
EPS, Basic & Diluted ($USD)$(0.93) —$(0.35)

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue BreakdownQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD)$1,757,251 —$160,704
Revenue – Related Parties ($USD)$111,707 —$77,790
Total Revenue ($USD)$1,868,958 $825,963*$238,494

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIsQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)$(2,453,254) —$(4,674,423)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)$1,231,401 $15,703,579 $11,711,301
Decathlon Loan StatusOutstanding Outstanding Fully repaid
Satellite MilestonesLS-2 environmental testing; launch planned ≥ Dec 2024 LS-2 launched Dec 2024; LS-3 cost efficiency noted LS-3 launched Mar 14; commissioning underway

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025None providedExpect “material revenue growth” in 2H 2025 as commercialization ramps Qualitative update
Product Orders (VPX/SOSA)Q2–Q3 2025None providedInitial orders expected beginning in Q2 2025 Qualitative update
OpEx / Cost OptimizationFY 2025None providedOngoing cost optimizations and efficiencies pursued Qualitative update
Lunar Program Revenue RecognitionFY 2025+N/ANot yet begun; agreement extended/amended to ~$120M prelim scope Clarification

No formal numerical ranges for revenue, margins, OpEx, OI&E, or tax rate were provided this quarter .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
AI/Technology InitiativesFeatherEdge AI on-orbit; FCC approvals; data-as-a-service strategy expansion Orlaith AI ecosystem launched; FeatherEdge GEN-2 flight-proven (100 TOPS); third-party AI integration Strengthening
Supply Chain & CostsHigher material/labor; depreciation impacting cost of revenue Continued pressure from global supply chain costs; higher depreciation as satellites/software go live Ongoing headwind
Product Performance (LizzieSat)LS-2 ready for launch; LS-3 planned; multi-sensor capability LS-3 launched; commissioning underway; customer payload communications established Operational progress
Regional Trends—Asia deployment of Orlaith/FeatherEdge; new purchase order supports 30 Gbps data transfers Expanding internationally
Regulatory/LegalFCC approvals for micro-constellation; remote sensing licenses Notice of Allowance for Modular Satellite Platform patent IP portfolio expanding
R&D/ExecutionSAP implementation; ERP ramp; manufacturing cadence ERP capitalization reflected in depreciation; VPX/SOSA product rollout Scaling to production
Lunar/Cislunar InitiativesSelected as exclusive lunar satellite manufacturer (6 spacecraft) Preliminary agreement extended/amended to ~$120M; Atomic-6 selected as solar array partner Advancing program prep

Management Commentary

  • “Q1 was a pivotal quarter…we launched LizzieSat-3 (LS-3) and advanced a major technology rollout…we are poised to generate revenue from diversified initiatives in the second half of the year.” — Carol Craig, CEO .
  • “Total revenue…decrease was expected and primarily driven by the timing of fixed price milestone contracts, and our intentional shift away from legacy contract work to focus on commercial space-based and AI-driven solutions.” — Adarsh Parekh, CFO .
  • “FeatherEdge GEN-2 is fully operational onboard LizzieSat-3…now commercially available…unlock new revenue streams across multiple markets.” — Carol Craig, CEO .
  • “We amended and extended [Lonestar] agreement…bringing the total potential value to $120 million. And while revenue recognition has not yet begun, this agreement provides strong visibility…” — Carol Craig, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • The Q1 2025 call consisted of prepared remarks; no live Q&A segment or detailed guidance Q&A was presented .
  • Prior quarter context: management addressed stock performance disconnect and capital strategy, emphasizing the shift to higher-margin data/services and disciplined dilution management (Q4 call) .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue was not available; we were unable to retrieve EPS or revenue estimate counts for comparison. Target price consensus appeared at $10 without granularity, but near-term quarterly EPS/revenue estimates were unavailable, limiting beat/miss assessment*.
  • Given lack of published quarterly consensus, estimates likely need to be established post-LS-3 commissioning and product order cadence visibility; near-term model updates should reflect higher depreciation and a 2H ramp in higher-margin data/product revenue .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term financials reflect transformation costs: expect continued depreciation pressure until satellite/data revenues scale; watch for VPX/SOSA orders in Q2 and LS-3 commissioning completion as catalysts .
  • Balance sheet improved: cash of $11.7M and repayment of the Decathlon loan increases flexibility to execute the commercialization roadmap and lunar program preparation .
  • Dual-use AI hardware/software portfolio is broadening TAM: Orlaith AI, FeatherEdge GEN-2 (100 TOPS), and Fortis VPX enable multi-domain revenue streams beyond space; Asia deployment and partnerships help accelerate commercial traction .
  • Lunar agreement momentum: extended/amended preliminary ~$120M scope and supplier selections (Atomic-6) indicate program progress; watch for conversion to definitive agreements and revenue recognition timing .
  • Model implications: near-term revenue lumpy from milestone timing and pivot away from legacy services; 2H 2025 revenue growth contingent on LS-3 data services and product sales; revisit OpEx trajectory as ERP and mission ops stabilize .
  • Trading setup: absence of formal guidance increases sensitivity to execution updates; milestones (LS-3 commissioning, initial VPX/SOSA orders, lunar contracting steps) are primary narrative drivers for re-rating.

Cross-References and Data Integrity Notes

  • All financial line items (revenue, cost of revenue, gross profit/loss, SG&A, net loss, EPS, cash) are sourced from the Q1 2025 8-K/press release and accompanying statements .
  • Q3 2024 comparative metrics and margins are sourced from the Q3 2024 8-K .
  • Operational highlights and product initiatives (LS-3, FeatherEdge GEN-2, Fortis VPX, Orlaith, partnerships) are from Q1 press materials and subsequent releases .
  • Estimates unavailability noted per S&P Global tool responses; where S&P actuals were shown without estimate context, they are labeled with an asterisk and S&P Global disclaimer.